
Chicago White Sox
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Athletics
+135O/U: 9.5
(+100/-120)-160
(+100/-120)-160
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Noah Schultz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)Compared to the average starter, Noah Schultz has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -11.9 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme groundball bats like Derek Hill usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jeffrey Springs.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Noah Schultz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher today) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Jeffrey Springs’s slider rate has increased by 5% from last year to this one (27% to 32%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)Max Muncy is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineThe Athletics bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Moneyline (-160)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+3.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+8.55 Units / 57% ROI)
