
Chicago White Sox
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Athletics
+130O/U: 9
(-115/-105)-150
(-115/-105)-150
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Noah Schultz – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)Compared to the average starter, Noah Schultz has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -12.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Sacramento’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Miguel Vargas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Noah Schultz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher today) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Jeffrey Springs’s slider rate has increased by 5% from last year to this one (27% to 32%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Max Muncy is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Athletics – 2H MoneylineThe Athletics bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Moneyline (-150)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 50 away games (+3.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Chase Meidroth has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
