
Athletics
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Chicago Cubs
+105O/U: 9
(+100/-120)-125
(+100/-120)-125
Athletics Insights
- Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)The Chicago Cubs have 7 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeffrey Springs in this game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Darell Hernaiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Darell Hernaiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 88.4-mph EV last year has fallen to 83.4-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The Athletics have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Zack Gelof, Henry Bolte, Nick Kurtz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-125)The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Typically, bats like Seiya Suzuki who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jeffrey Springs.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Chicago Cubs – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.30 Units / 66% ROI)
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Darell Hernaiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Darell Hernaiz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+9.15 Units / 45% ROI)
