Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers
(+100/-120)-130
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves today, April 1, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Dodgers, sitting atop the National League standings with a perfect 6-0 record, are coming off a solid 6-1 victory against the Braves yesterday. In contrast, the Braves have struggled significantly this season, currently holding a dismal 0-5 record.
On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start Dustin May, who has had a rocky start to the season. May’s recent outing on March 27 saw him pitch just one inning, but he did not allow any earned runs. However, he projects to go only 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs with a troubling 4.2 hits and 1.4 walks.
Chris Sale, on the other hand, takes the hill for the Braves. Despite a challenging ERA of 5.40 this season, Sale’s underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his 1.80 xFIP indicates he has been rather unlucky. Sale’s ability to generate strikeouts, with a 31.8% strikeout rate, could be pivotal against a Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in the league in strikeouts.
While the Dodgers’ offense has been average overall, they rank 3rd in the league in home runs with 14. This power could prove crucial against Sale, who is a high-groundball pitcher, limiting the damage from the Dodgers’ potent lineup.
With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, they may have the edge today, especially considering the Braves’ offensive struggles and their rank of 57th in batting average. The projections for this matchup lean in favor of the Dodgers, making them the team to watch as they aim to extend their winning streak against a reeling Braves squad.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)The Los Angeles Dodgers have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chris Sale in this game, which is especially problematic given his huge platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Dustin May.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Los Angeles Dodgers offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 99 games (+25.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 138 games (+31.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Marcell Ozuna has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.30 Units / 56% ROI)