Review Tigers vs Dodgers Bets and Betting Trends – Thursday, March 27, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on March 27, 2025, both teams come into this Interleague matchup with distinct storylines. The Dodgers are enjoying a strong start to the season, boasting a 2-0 record and ranking as the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the Tigers find themselves struggling at 25th in offensive rankings. The Dodgers last played on March 19, where they secured a solid 6-3 victory, further enhancing their early-season momentum.

On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start Blake Snell, who has been solid this season, though his projections indicate he may struggle with allowing hits and walks. Snell ranks 16th among MLB starting pitchers, showcasing his ability to strike out batters—projecting an impressive 7.4 strikeouts on average today. In contrast, Tarik Skubal of the Tigers enters this game ranked 2nd among MLB pitchers, albeit after a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 5 earned runs. Skubal’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings with a good earned run average of 2.1, but his tendency to allow hits could be a concern.

The Dodgers’ offense ranks 4th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs, indicating a potent lineup capable of capitalizing on any mistakes made by Skubal. With the Game Total set at a low 6.5 runs, expectations are tempered, but the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -160, reflecting their strong early-season form. The projections suggest the Dodgers should outperform their implied team total of 3.58 runs, especially against a Tigers lineup that ranks poorly across the board. This matchup sets the stage for what could be a decisive game for both teams, particularly for the Dodgers as they look to maintain their momentum.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Throwing 92.7 adjusted pitches per start since the start of last season on average, Tarik Skubal places him the 84th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan Kreidler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Kreidler in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Blake Snell has a large reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Hits
  Max Muncy is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games (+25.05 Units / 32% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 83 games (+23.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Miguel Rojas has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+7.95 Units / 99% ROI)