Twins vs Cardinals Picks and Odds – March 27, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on March 27, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective seasons. The Cardinals currently sit in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th in MLB offense, while the Twins are slightly better at 11th. However, the Cardinals have struggled with power, ranking 22nd in home runs, which could be a concern against a solid pitcher like Pablo Lopez.

Sonny Gray, projected to start for St. Louis, is coming off a lackluster performance on September 18, 2024, where he pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs and giving up 9 hits. Despite being ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Gray projects to allow 1.9 earned runs today, which is considered great, but he also has concerning averages of 4.2 hits and 1.6 walks allowed. His ability to strike out 6.6 batters could be crucial, especially against a Twins lineup that ranks 30th in stolen bases.

Pablo Lopez, who is projected to start for Minnesota, is slightly better in the Power Rankings at 25th. He had a solid outing in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 6 innings with 8 strikeouts. Lopez’s projections indicate he will allow 2.2 earned runs today but struggles with hits and walks, averaging 5.0 hits and 1.4 walks allowed.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, this matchup is expected to be close. The Cardinals have a moneyline of +100, implying a win probability of 48%, while the Twins are at -120 with a 52% implied win probability. Given the projections and the recent performances of both pitchers, this game could be a nail-biter, with the Cardinals looking to capitalize on their home advantage and the Twins aiming to assert their offensive prowess.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Willi Castro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Sonny Gray in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-most strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Minnesota Twins with a 24.5% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Sonny Gray projects to strikeout an average of 6.5 bats in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Lars Nootbaar is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 86 games (+13.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.05 Units / 24% ROI)