Padres vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – October 05, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

In the highly anticipated National League Division Series opener on October 5, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, featuring the best offense in the league according to advanced metrics, are a favorite with an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading projection system, gives them an even stronger edge with a 59% chance of taking the series opener, making them an intriguing choice for bettors.

On the mound, the Dodgers will look to elite right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, ranked 12th among MLB starters this year. Yamamoto boasts an excellent 3.00 ERA but faces a low-strikeout Padres lineup, possibly impacting his ability to leverage his high 28.5 K% effectively. Meanwhile, the Padres’ Dylan Cease, ranked 22nd among starters, enters with a solid 3.47 ERA. His tendency to allow flyballs may be exploited by the Dodgers, who rank 3rd in home runs this season.

The Dodgers are riding high after a close victory against the Rockies on September 29, where they showcased their resilience by securing a 2-1 win. In contrast, the Padres emerged triumphant against the Braves with a 5-4 victory, highlighting both teams’ capability to win tightly contested matchups.

Offensively, the Dodgers have been buoyed by Shohei Ohtani’s standout season, marked by a .310 batting average and a stellar 1.036 OPS. On the Padres side, Jurickson Profar has been a key contributor, boasting a .278 batting average and an .833 OPS.

With elite bullpens backing both squads, this matchup promises to be a competitive contest. The projections suggest the Dodgers are well-positioned to leverage their power against Cease, while the Padres will aim to capitalize on any slips in Yamamoto’s form. This series kickoff is set to be a battle of potent offenses and elite pitching talent in Los Angeles.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Dylan Cease has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 10.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Donovan Solano is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the 92nd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order profiles as the best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games (+21.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 87 games (+23.20 Units / 19% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)