New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-170
As October baseball heats up, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets are set to face off on October 5, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in the first game of their National League Division Series matchup. Philadelphia, enjoying the comforts of home, is looking to capitalize on their strong season, highlighted by a potent offense that ranks 4th in baseball. Known for being robust at the plate, the Phillies have also been adept on the base paths, sitting 5th in stolen bases. The Mets, ranked 9th in offensive power, bring their own strengths, especially in power hitting, where they have secured the 6th spot in home runs.
On the mound, Philadelphia is handing the ball to Zack Wheeler, who has been nothing short of elite this year. As THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks Wheeler as the 5th best starting pitcher, he enters this game with a sparkling 2.57 ERA and a solid 16-7 Win/Loss record over 32 starts. Wheeler’s ability to keep runs off the board will be critical against a Mets lineup that features the red-hot Francisco Lindor, who has been delivering with a .273 average and a .984 OPS over his last week.
The Mets counter with Kodai Senga, who, despite minimal action this season, holds promise with a 1-0 record and a 3.38 ERA. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. Senga’s potential for improvement is crucial for the Mets to challenge the Phillies’ offense effectively.
The Phillies enter the game as big favorites with a moneyline of -180, reflecting their implied win probability of 62%. However, Senga’s potential adjustments and the Mets’ power could tilt the scale. With the Game Total set at a low 7.0 runs, expect pitching to dominate, especially with Wheeler’s elite stature and Senga’s potential upside. As the series unfolds, attention to every inning will be pivotal, setting the tone for an exciting October showdown.
New York Mets Insights
- Kodai Senga – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kodai Senga in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the New York Mets with a 22.9% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 15th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his batting average skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 74 games (+16.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- New York Mets – Run Line +1.5 (-145)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 107 games (+15.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 37 games (+13.30 Units / 30% ROI)