St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-130
As the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals gear up for their final matchup of the series on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions this season. The Giants have posted an 80-81 record, while the Cardinals stand slightly better at 82-79. With neither team in the playoff hunt, this game is more about pride and ending the season on a high note. In their last outing, the Giants edged out the Cardinals with a 6-5 victory, highlighting their competitive spirit despite a middling season.
On the mound, the Giants will start Hayden Birdsong. Birdsong, a right-handed pitcher, ranks as the 211th best starting pitcher, making him one of the least effective in the league. Despite this, his season stats reflect an average performance with a 4.66 ERA and a 5-5 win/loss record. However, he struggles with control and contact, projecting to allow 4.4 hits and 1.8 walks per game.
The Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy, also a right-hander, who has shown flashes of brilliance in his limited starts. With an impressive 2.40 ERA across just two games, McGreevy looks to maintain his unbeaten record, though his underlying stats suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate. His xERA of 3.20 indicates he may regress, yet he projects to outperform Birdsong in innings pitched and strikeouts.
Offensively, both teams are fairly average, with the Giants ranking 18th and the Cardinals 16th overall in offensive power. The Giants have shown a slight edge in power rankings, particularly with their 16th ranked home run tally, while the Cardinals have excelled in batting average, ranking 9th.
Betting markets reflect the evenly matched nature of this game, with the Giants holding a slight edge. The Giants are favored with a -125 moneyline and a 53% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, supports this, suggesting a close contest but giving the Giants a slight nod at 52% to secure the win.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael McGreevy in the 15th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Matt Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Matt Carpenter has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #27 group of hitters in the league this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Over his previous 3 GS, Hayden Birdsong has experienced a big jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2290 rpm over the whole season to 2340 rpm lately.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Jerar Encarnacion – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Jerar Encarnacion has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 94.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+7.70 Units / 154% ROI)