Weather for Royals vs Braves Game – 9/28/24

Kansas City Royals

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Atlanta Braves

On September 28, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will host the Kansas City Royals at Truist Park for the second game of their interleague series. With Atlanta boasting an 87-71 record and Kansas City sitting at 85-75, both teams are having solid seasons, though the Braves are slightly more successful. Yesterday, the Braves secured a shutout victory over the Royals with a 3-0 win, showcasing their resilience as the regular season approaches its end.

Reynaldo Lopez, the Braves’ projected starter, has been an above-average performer this season, ranking as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB. His impressive 2.03 ERA indicates his ability to keep runs off the board, although an xFIP of 3.58 suggests some of his success may be due to favorable circumstances. However, his projected performance of 4.2 innings and 1.9 earned runs today leaves room for improvement. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 2nd in avoiding strikeouts, which could mitigate his strength as a high-strikeout pitcher.

For the Royals, Seth Lugo takes the mound. Ranked as the 65th best starting pitcher, Lugo has a commendable 3.03 ERA this season. With projections for 5.3 innings and 2.7 earned runs, Lugo’s consistency will be key in holding off the Braves’ potent power display, marked by their 4th-place rank in home runs. While both teams have capable bullpens—Atlanta’s ranking 9th and Kansas City’s 10th—how well the starters deliver will likely set the tone for the game.

Despite the betting markets heavily favoring the Braves, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, suggests that the Royals have a 6% higher win probability than implied by the odds. This potential value could intrigue bettors, especially those eyeing underdogs in this matchup. As the series progresses, the dynamics between Atlanta’s power-hitting lineup and Kansas City’s adept contact hitters may well determine the outcome.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Seth Lugo’s 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Maikel Garcia is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals (20.8 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Reynaldo Lopez to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Michael Harris II has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 98.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 143 games (+36.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)