Find the TV Channel Information for Mariners vs Angels – 7/12/24

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels are set to host the Seattle Mariners on July 12, 2024, at Angel Stadium for the second game of their series. The Angels, sitting at 38-55 and struggling this season, are looking to bounce back after a crushing 11-0 loss to the Mariners yesterday. Meanwhile, the Mariners, with a solid 52-43 record, continue their above-average season after yesterday’s dominant win.

The Angels will send left-hander Tyler Anderson to the mound. Anderson, despite an 8-8 record and an excellent 2.81 ERA, has been fortunate this year according to his 5.05 xFIP, indicating potential regression. However, Anderson showcased brilliance in his last start on July 6, pitching a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts. On average, he projects to allow 3.1 earned runs and 5.3 hits over 5.5 innings, which isn’t promising. He’ll face a high-strikeout Mariners lineup that ranks 1st in most strikeouts, possibly giving Anderson an edge.

Bryan Woo, a right-hander, gets the nod for the Mariners. Woo boasts an impressive 1.77 ERA and a 3-1 record, though his 4.00 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved. Woo’s projections are mixed, with just 3.7 innings and 3.6 strikeouts expected, but he’s slated to allow only 1.6 earned runs and 3.4 hits. His abbreviated last outing on June 24 saw him go just 3 innings, giving up 1 earned run on 5 hits.

Offensively, the Angels rank 23rd in MLB, struggling overall but showing promise in home runs (14th) and stolen bases (8th). Taylor Ward has been their standout with 14 home runs. Over the last week, Logan O’Hoppe has been a bright spot, hitting .269 with a .883 OPS. Conversely, the Mariners’ offense ranks 27th, with Julio Rodriguez leading the way and Victor Robles hitting .500 with a 2.100 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are near the bottom of the league, with the Angels ranked 28th and the Mariners 26th. This game is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to be close, with the Angels having a 46% chance to win, slightly better than their implied win probability of 42%. The Mariners are favored with a 54% chance, just under their implied win probability of 58%.

This matchup could hinge on whether Anderson can replicate his recent success and if Woo can hold the Angels’ offense at bay. With both teams’ bullpens struggling, the game total of 8.5 runs looks about right.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Bryan Woo’s higher usage rate of his fastball this year (79.9 compared to 72.4% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 97.3-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Tyler Anderson’s 88.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 1st percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) implies that Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year with his .170 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+9.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 25 away games (+5.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Anthony Rendon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Anthony Rendon has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 32% ROI)