Check the Weather for Cubs vs Cardinals Game – 7/12/2024

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are set to kick off their series at Busch Stadium on July 12, 2024, in a National League Central matchup. Currently, the Cardinals hold a 48-44 record, placing them above average this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs, standing at 45-49, have struggled with below-average performance.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals will be Sonny Gray, the #16 ranked pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gray, with a 9-5 Win/Loss record and a stellar 3.30 ERA, has been having a solid season. His 2.75 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better going forward. Although Gray got roughed up in his last outing on July 5, allowing five earned runs over five innings, he is expected to bounce back against a Cubs offense that ranks 22nd in MLB.

Kyle Hendricks will start for the Cubs, bringing with him a 1-7 Win/Loss record and a dismal 7.53 ERA. A 4.31 xFIP indicates Hendricks has also faced some bad luck, but he still projects to allow 2.8 earned runs on average today. While the Cubs’ offense has shown some life with a dominant 8-0 shutout win over the Orioles in their last game, their season-long struggles suggest they may have a tough time against Gray.

The Cardinals’ offense, ranked 18th in MLB, will look to capitalize on Hendricks’ vulnerabilities. Brendan Donovan has been their standout hitter this season, and Nolan Gorman has been red-hot over the last week, batting .455 with an impressive 1.115 OPS.

Bullpens could play a pivotal role in this game. The Cardinals boast the 5th best bullpen in MLB, compared to the Cubs’ 12th-ranked relief corps. This could be a decisive factor, especially if the starting pitchers struggle to go deep into the game.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Cardinals a 60% chance to win, slightly higher than the betting market’s implied 64% win probability. Given the Cubs’ underdog status with a +165 moneyline, there might be some value in betting on the Cubs due to the public’s reluctance to back a team with a poor record. However, with the Cardinals’ stronger overall season and pitching edge, they remain the favorites in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Kyle Hendricks has averaged 13.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 8th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  In terms of his batting average, Michael Busch has had positive variance on his side this year. His .278 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .223.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Sonny Gray’s cut-fastball usage has increased by 5% from last year to this one (13.1% to 18.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 91 games (+8.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+13.45 Units / 27% ROI)