Rockies vs Dodgers Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/21/2024

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, having an impressive 92-62 record this season, continue to lead the National League West as they host the Colorado Rockies on September 21, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, coming off a solid performance in the series opener, look to secure another victory against the Rockies, who have struggled this season with a 59-95 record.

Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Dodgers, despite a tough season marked by a 5.54 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, and there’s potential for improvement. Buehler faces a Rockies lineup known for striking out frequently, ranking 2nd in MLB for most strikeouts. This could swing the advantage in Buehler’s favor, as he aims to exploit their weakness. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani has been red-hot at the plate for the Dodgers, hitting .433 with a 1.552 OPS over the last seven games, bolstering an already strong Dodgers offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

On the Rockies’ side, Cal Quantrill, one of the league’s lower-ranked pitchers, will start. He has an average 4.68 ERA this year but faces a challenging task against the disciplined Dodgers lineup, ranked 3rd in walks drawn. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 20th by Power Rankings, will need a standout performance from Sam Hilliard, who has hit .455 with a 1.538 OPS in his last four games, to have a fighting chance.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Dodgers significantly, projecting them as a big favorite with a projected win probability of 69%. With the Dodgers’ potent lineup and Buehler’s potential for a bounce-back performance, Los Angeles seems poised to extend their winning ways against the struggling Rockies.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Cal Quantrill’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2129 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2186 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.283) implies that Ezequiel Tovar has had positive variance on his side this year with his .321 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies makes them the #10 offense in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Walker Buehler has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Teoscar Hernandez has a ton of pop (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact type (21st percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 77 games (+17.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+230)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+6.89 Units / 38% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-275/+205)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+8.85 Units / 59% ROI)