Follow the Live Updates for Marlins vs Astros – (7/11/2024

Miami Marlins

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins gear up for the third game of their series on July 11, 2024, the disparity between the two teams stands out. The Astros, currently sitting at 48-44, are enjoying an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Marlins, at 32-60, are enduring a rough campaign. With Houston’s playoff ambitions still alive, this matchup at Minute Maid Park offers an intriguing dynamic.

The Astros hold a significant edge in offensive firepower. Ranking 6th overall in offense, Houston leads MLB with the highest team batting average and is 9th in home runs, showcasing their ability to both hit and slug. In contrast, the Marlins rank dead last in offensive production, with the fewest team home runs and a lowly 24th in batting average. This is a critical factor as Miami’s bats have consistently struggled to generate runs.

On the mound, Houston will start Jake Bloss, a right-hander who is ranked 218th in MLB by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Bloss has only one start this season, posting a 4.91 ERA. However, his 6.07 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and could regress. Nevertheless, Houston’s strong bullpen, ranked 10th, could provide the necessary support should Bloss falter.

Miami counters with right-hander Roddery Munoz, who has struggled with a 5.48 ERA over eight starts this season. Munoz’s peripherals indicate potential further decline, with a 6.03 xERA and a concerning 7.45 FIP. The disparity in bullpen strength further disadvantages Miami, as their relief corps is ranked 16th, a middle-of-the-pack placement in MLB.

Houston’s Alex Bregman has been a standout performer over the last week, tallying 10 hits, 5 runs, 8 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a .400 average and 1.124 OPS. Meanwhile, Miami’s Dane Myers has been a bright spot, hitting .429 with a 1.214 OPS over the past week, though the Marlins’ offensive woes persist.

With the Astros favored at -195 and an implied win probability of 64%, their combination of superior hitting, a solid bullpen, and a favorable matchup against a struggling Marlins squad positions them well for this encounter. On the other hand, Miami’s implied win probability sits at just 36%, reflecting their uphill battle. As such, Houston seems poised to capitalize on their advantages and secure another victory in this interleague series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Roddery Munoz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Roddery Munoz will average a total of 14.8 outs in this outing.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Nick Fortes has been unlucky this year, putting up a .198 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .271 — a .073 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• It may be best to expect better results for the Miami Marlins offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Jake Bloss – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against John Bloss in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Jon Singleton has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros hitters as a unit rank 27th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 91.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+14.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Jake Burger has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 20% ROI)