Mets vs Guardians Injury Report – Tuesday, August 04, 2026

New York Mets

@

Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Sean Manaea’s slider usage has fallen by 5% from last year to this one (34.9% to 29.9%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Joey Cantillo’s 1869-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 1st percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• David Fry – Over/Under Hits
  David Fry is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Joey Cantillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.80 Units / 56% ROI)