Review the Padres vs D-Backs Match Preview and Winning Probability - August 3rd, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-110

Michael King – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
Out of all SPs, Michael King’s fastball velocity of 92.3 mph grades out in the 17th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 20.1% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brandon Pfaadt is expected to average a total of 16.7 outs in today’s matchup.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Corbin Carroll has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.7-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 39% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games (+6.10 Units / 22% ROI)
Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-690)
Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+8.50 Units / 121% ROI)

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