Live Score for Cubs vs Pirates - July 25th, 2026

+105O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-125

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in MLB today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
In the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10% up to 18.2%.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (36.6% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
Paul Skenes has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 3.43 rate is inflated compared to his 2.91 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Esmerlyn Valdez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Esmerlyn Valdez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 93.4-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected batting order today (.316 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably worse than their .332 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+105)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.65 Units / 31% ROI)

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