Game Location for Mets vs Phillies – 7/18/26

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Sean Manaea’s 2033-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 4th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under Total Bases
  Brett Baty has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Considering that flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jesus Luzardo and his 45% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)