Reds vs Braves Prediction and Game Breakdown - Wednesday September 23, 2026

+220O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-260

Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Andrew Abbott has gone to his slider 5.3% more often this year (19.2%) than he did last season (13.9%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Matt McLain has been unlucky this year, notching a .271 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .310 — a .039 gap.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-330)
In his last start, Chris Sale was in good form and conceded 0 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
Sean Murphy has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has decreased to 7.9% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Compared to their .325 overall projected rate, the .313 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-260)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)
Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+220)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 40 away games (+3.10 Units / 7% ROI)
Ha-Seong Kim – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.10 Units / 45% ROI)

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