See the Padres vs Dodgers Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Wednesday September 23rd, 2026

San Diego Padres

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Xander Bogaerts tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the San Diego Padres offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has relied on his four-seamer 9.2% less often this season (26.5%) than he did last year (35.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Tommy Edman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen projects as the best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-225)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 20% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+195)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 42% ROI)