Read the Prediction and Game Breakdown for Rays vs Yankees Match Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

+120O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-140

Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Jonathan Aranda’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 93.1-mph figure last season has lowered to 91-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
Gerrit Cole’s 96.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 84th percentile out of all SPs.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+120)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 0.5 Walks Allowed (-225/+170)
Gerrit Cole has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)

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