Mets vs Rangers Betting Guide – 9/23/26

New York Mets

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Texas Rangers

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Nolan McLean (47.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in Texas’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 98.7-mph EV last season has dropped off to 95.6-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cody Bradford – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Cody Bradford has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Danny Jansen tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nolan McLean.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Brandon Nimmo hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+10.45 Units / 44% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 20 games at home (+5.60 Units / 28% ROI)