Game Location for Mets vs Phillies – 7/18/26

New York Mets

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Philadelphia Phillies

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Sean Manaea’s 2033-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 4th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Francisco Lindor has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 94.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Considering that flyball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Jesus Luzardo and his 45% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Derek Hill).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-170)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+200/-265)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)