Team Stats and Prediction for Rangers vs Marlins Matchup 6/24/26

Texas Rangers

@

Miami Marlins

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  When estimating his strikeout skill, Jacob deGrom projects as the 13th-best starter in the majors currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+215/-295)
  Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Higashioka usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Eury Perez’s 2653-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 100th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Owen Caissie is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts