
Chicago Cubs
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Colorado Rockies
-175O/U: 11.5
(-115/-105)+155
(-115/-105)+155
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Shota Imanaga’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 7.4% from last season to this one (48.7% to 41.3%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Michael Conforto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Michael Conforto has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 90.2-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-175)The Chicago Cubs projected offense ranks as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Ranking in the 18th percentile, Michael Lorenzen compiled an 8.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year.Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
- Braxton Fulford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Typically, batters like Braxton Fulford who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Colorado Rockies – 2H MoneylineThe Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-115/-105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+12.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-175)Nico Hoerner has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
