Pirates vs Braves Game Highlights – Sunday, June 7, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Atlanta Braves

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bubba Chandler has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 56.9% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 11th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Austin Riley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The underlying talent of the Atlanta Braves projected lineup today (.317 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .328 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.