Yankees vs Royals Picks and Odds – May 26, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Kansas City Royals

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Cameron Schlittler’s 97.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 95th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. has big-time power (89th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter is a pitch-to-contact type (24th percentile K%) — great news for Chisholm Jr..
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 8.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bailey Falter to have a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Jac Caglianone has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph to 97.4-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+4.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+10.10 Units / 50% ROI)