Player Insights for Pirates vs Blue Jays – 5/24/26

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Toronto Blue Jays

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Mitch Keller’s slider rate has dropped by 7.6% from last season to this one (33% to 25.4%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Among all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph is in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under Total Bases
  Tyler Heineman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.8-mph mark last year has fallen to 83.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.