Dive Into the Simulation and Insights for Mets vs Nationals Match Preview – May 18, 2026

New York Mets

@

Washington Nationals

New York Mets Insights

• Christian Scott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Christian Scott’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2446 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2349 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  When it comes to his batting average, Luis Torrens has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .219 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .302.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• New York’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in Major League Baseball: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Generating 14.2 outs per outing this year on average, Jake Irvin checks in at the 19th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The Barrel% of James Wood has significantly improved, with an increase from 16.1% last year to 26.9% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brady House – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Brady House has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 35 games (+9.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+16.30 Units / 32% ROI)
• Carson Benge – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+180/-235)
  Carson Benge has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 43% ROI)