Winning Probability and Match Preview for Reds vs Rockies – 7/17/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

Colorado Rockies

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Brady Singer falls in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Eugenio Suarez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Cincinnati Reds offense projects for the most runs on the slate today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Colorado Rockies in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .307, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .326 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+4.30 Units / 31% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.15 Units / 34% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)