Expert Player Predictions for Reds vs Guardians – Sunday, May 17, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

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Cleveland Guardians

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph fall off from last season’s 91.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Sal Stewart ranks in the 99th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .388.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 11.9% Barrel% of the Cincinnati Reds ranks them as the #1 offense in MLB this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to average, Gavin Williams has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.9 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.