Read the Phillies vs Pirates Prediction and Game Breakdown – May 17th, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 7.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  J.T. Realmuto’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 89.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Paul Skenes has relied on his change-up 7.4% more often this year (31.9%) than he did last season (24.5%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Henry Davis has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .161 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+240/-335)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)