Head-to-Head Preview: Yankees vs Mets Matchup 5/17/26

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  In his last outing, Elmer Rodriguez turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Aaron Judge has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 101.2-mph average to last year’s 99.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Freddy Peralta has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 3.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect improved performance for the New York Mets offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 45 games (+16.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in his last 8 away games (+8.55 Units / 94% ROI)