Expert Player Predictions for Reds vs Guardians - Sunday, May 17, 2026

+135O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-160

Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
Brady Singer’s 90.3-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.3-mph fall off from last season’s 91.6-mph mark.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (11.3) provides evidence that Nathaniel Lowe has been lucky since the start of last season with his 20.3 actual HR/600.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
Compared to average, Gavin Williams has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.9 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
Steven Kwan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (98% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.65 Units / 34% ROI)

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