St. Louis Cardinals
@
Athletics
-110O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Out of all starting pitchers, Michael McGreevy’s fastball velocity of 90.8 mph grades out in the 8th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Church tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob Lopez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- St. Louis’s 89.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the game: #9 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Athletics Insights
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all parks today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Zack Gelof – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Zack Gelof has big-time power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (30% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael McGreevy has a pitch-to-contact profile (10th percentile K%) — great news for Gelof.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under Total BasesToday, Lawrence Butler is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.