Game Breakdown: Phillies vs Red Sox Team Stats and Insights – May 13, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Boston Red Sox

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Andrew Painter – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+135)
  Tallying 14 outs per GS this year on average, Andrew Painter places in the 16th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Kyle Schwarber has made notable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 23.2% seasonal rate to 41.2% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Sonny Gray’s cutter rate has increased by 11.8% from last year to this one (12.6% to 24.4%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Willson Contreras has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last season’s 95.8-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 46% ROI)