Recommended Player Prop Bets for Mariners vs Astros – Tuesday May 12, 2026

Seattle Mariners

@

Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
  Bryan Woo has averaged 17.6 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 86th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Randy Arozarena has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Tatsuya Imai – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Tatsuya Imai encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.3-mph to 99.6-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have been the luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)