Check Out Mariners vs Astros Picks and Betting Tips – Monday May 11th, 2026

Seattle Mariners

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Houston Astros

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  George Kirby’s sinker percentage has fallen by 8.8% from last season to this one (26.9% to 18.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Luke Raley has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 103.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (+130)
  Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Seattle’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Yordan Alvarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros batters collectively place 9th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 9.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.40 Units / 28% ROI)
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+200/-265)
  Luke Raley has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 27% ROI)