D-Backs vs Rangers Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Monday May 11, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Texas Rangers

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Michael Soroka has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 3.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 86.8-mph figure last season has decreased to 83.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jakob Junis – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jakob Junis in the 16th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Ezequiel Duran has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .243 mark is inflated compared to his .191 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 15 games (+11.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Josh Jung has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)