Check Out the Yankees vs Brewers Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday May 09, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Milwaukee Brewers

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Generating 17.8 outs per start this year on average, Cameron Schlittler ranks in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Aaron Judge has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Harrison has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 60.3% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Luis Rengifo has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .228 BA is a fair amount lower than his .272 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+5.80 Units / 22% ROI)