Review Mariners vs White Sox Bets and Betting Trends – Saturday, May 9, 2026

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  As it relates to his batting average, J.P. Crawford has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .256 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .293.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be best to expect better results for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Anthony Kay – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Anthony Kay in today’s game, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 9.4% Barrel% of the Chicago White Sox ranks them as the #7 squad in the league this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.25 Units / 26% ROI)