Review the Pirates vs Rangers Insights and Game Breakdown - April 23, 2026

+140O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-160

Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bubba Chandler is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least on the slate.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Oneil Cruz has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.7-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 97.5-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Pittsburgh’s 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in Major League Baseball: #21 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Jacob deGrom’s slider utilization has dropped by 5.6% from last year to this one (37.6% to 32%) .
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
As it relates to his batting average, Ezequiel Duran has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .238 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .191.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games at home (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Corey Seager – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
Corey Seager has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 37% ROI)

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