Cardinals vs Marlins Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday April 22, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Miami Marlins

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Kyle Leahy today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker’s true offensive skill to be a .327, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .097 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .424 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Janson Junk performed well in his previous GS and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Agustin Ramirez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Owen Caissie, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts