Uncover Detailed Player Insights for Mets vs Cubs – Saturday, April 18th, 2026

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Freddy Peralta’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph decline from last year’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Brett Baty is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jameson Taillon to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Michael Busch’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 82.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 64.4-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs bats as a unit place 5th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 9.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.80 Units / 60% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 42% ROI)