Starting Lineup for Yankees vs Rays – April 11, 2026

New York Yankees

@

Tampa Bay Rays

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Max Fried (52.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.210) may lead us to conclude that Giancarlo Stanton has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .281 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The New York Yankees have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Giancarlo Stanton, Ryan McMahon, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Nick Martinez’s change-up utilization has increased by 10% from last season to this one (19.6% to 29.6%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays hitters jointly grade out 25th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 7.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 98% ROI)