D-Backs vs Phillies Picks and Odds - April 11, 2026

+115O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-135

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Brandon Pfaadt’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (65.9% vs. 53.2% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Jorge Barrosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Barrosa has been lucky since the start of last season. His .203 figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .167.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Taijuan Walker’s 2127-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 16th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
Alec Bohm is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games
Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.10 Units / 17% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.10 Units / 27% ROI)

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