
Boston Red Sox
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Houston Astros
+125O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-150
(-110/-110)-150
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (50% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #9 HR venue in the league — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Roman Anthony – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Since the start of last season, Roman Anthony has an average exit velocity of 94.7 mph, which is one of the best in the game at the 98th percentile.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Boston Red Sox – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Hunter Brown has utilized his curveball 9.6% more often this year (27.5%) than he did last season (17.9%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Boston (#1-best of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 153 games (+14.90 Units / 8% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+125)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 119 games (+11.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-150/+115)Hunter Brown has hit the Earned Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 29% ROI)
