See the Starting Lineup for Rays vs Brewers - March 31, 2026

+110O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-130

Shane McClanahan – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shane McClanahan to throw 83 pitches in today’s game (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Cedric Mullins has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Brandon Woodruff’s high usage percentage of his fastball (61.7% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
William Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
William Contreras’s quickness has declined this season. His 26.17 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.94 ft/sec now.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the league since the start of last season.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+21.20 Units / 10% ROI)
Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 63 of their last 112 games (+9.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Joseph Ortiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)

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