Blue Jays vs Mariners Preview and Prediction – Wednesday October 15th, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Shane Bieber has recorded 17.3 outs per outing this year, placing in the 89th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Seattle’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Anthony Santander, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  George Kirby’s change-up rate has dropped by 5.3% from last season to this one (10.2% to 4.9%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-135)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 40 games at home (+16.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 136 games (+21.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-185)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)