Find Rockies vs Giants Value Bets and Betting Line – Sunday September 28th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on September 28, 2025, both teams are looking to make the most of their remaining games this season. The Giants currently sit at 80-81, having had an average year, while the Rockies are struggling at 43-118, marking a dismal campaign. The Rockies have been particularly poor, as evidenced by their last game, where they were shut out by the Giants, further highlighting their offensive woes.

Logan Webb, the Giants’ projected starter, is having a solid season with a 14-11 record and a commendable 3.30 ERA. Webb is ranked as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite status among his peers. His ability to generate ground balls (54% GB rate) could play to his advantage against a Rockies lineup that has hit just 160 home runs this season, ranking them 6th least in the league. Additionally, Webb’s low walk rate (5.5% BB) might limit the Rockies’ opportunities, as they are the most impatient team at the plate, drawing the fewest walks in MLB.

On the other side, Colorado’s McCade Brown has had a rough go this season, with a 0-4 record and a troubling 7.54 ERA. His projections suggest he may only pitch 4.4 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, which doesn’t bode well against a Giants lineup that, despite ranking 22nd in overall offense, has the potential to capitalize on Brown’s struggles.

With the Giants favored heavily in this matchup, the projections indicate they could score around 4.68 runs, while the Rockies are expected to struggle to reach their projected total of 2.82 runs. This game shapes up to be a test for both teams, with the Giants looking to build momentum as the season winds down.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• McCade Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  McCade Brown wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his previous GS and posted 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Ezequiel Tovar generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 8.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Drew Gilbert has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 games (+8.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 158 games (+17.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-170)
  Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 10 games (+6.70 Units / 67% ROI)