Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Braves – 9/27/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 27, 2025, at Truist Park, both teams are looking to turn around their disappointing seasons. The Braves currently sit with a record of 75-85, while the Pirates are at 70-90, both well below .500. In their previous matchup, the Braves fell to the Pirates, losing 9-3, highlighting the struggles of Atlanta’s offense this year.

Spencer Strider is projected to take the mound for the Braves. Despite his 7-13 record and a 4.45 ERA, Strider ranks as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, indicating he possesses the talent to perform better than his record suggests. In his last outing on September 21, he excelled, pitching 5 innings with 0 earned runs and striking out 6 batters. The projections indicate he may allow 2.4 earned runs today, which would be a solid performance against a struggling Pirates offense that ranks dead last in the league.

On the other side, Bubba Chandler will start for the Pirates. Although he holds a respectable record of 3-1 with a 4.56 ERA, he is considered a below-average pitcher. His last start was strong as well, going 5 innings without allowing any runs, but the projections suggest he will struggle today, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average, while striking out only 3.9 batters.

The Braves’ offense ranks 13th overall but has been inconsistent, particularly in power numbers, sitting 11th in home runs while ranking 25th in stolen bases. The Pirates, conversely, are last in both overall offense and home runs, which could give Strider a distinct advantage. With the Braves as significant betting favorites at a moneyline of -170, there is optimism they can bounce back from their recent loss against a Pirates team that has struggled to score. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup, but the Braves’ offense should have the edge today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to league average, Bubba Chandler has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  As it relates to his batting average, Henry Davis has had some very poor luck this year. His .165 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .225.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 5 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Rafael Flores, Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Spencer Strider has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.50 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.67 — a 1.16 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 149 games (+24.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-175)
  Spencer Horwitz has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 32% ROI)